Syndicated Column 5-5-04


Pataki’s political prowess faces big test

By Alan Chartock

The distinguished political writer, Marc Humbert of the Associated Press, checked in recently with a provocative and seemingly unassailable column. He suggested that George Pataki would not try to break the “Curse of Mario” and run for a fourth term. Humbert cites as proof the increasing number of Pataki aides who are jumping ship and the governor’s poll numbers which, to put it mildly, are heading south. I am sure that Humbert’s beliefs will be seconded by the bookies and just about every political professional around.
Pataki, for his part, has to worry about his lame duck status. If people think you won’t be around, they’re more likely to take advantage. But let’s try to remember that people have been underestimating Pataki’s acumen for years. This is a man who has won the governorship three times. The first time he got in was the Republican year in which Democrats were swept out all over the country. Mario Cuomo only lost by a tiny percentage of the vote, but Pataki became the un-Cola and gave everyone a rest from the rhetoric.
Despite the fact that some in his administration were doing some very bad things and that some, like Al D’Amato, were getting very rich because of their political connections to the governor, no one could really pin anything directly on George. Even to his enemies he appeared to be a good-natured schlemiel whose smile was not quite right and who projected the image of an “aw, shucks” kind of guy. His speeches were tedious and downright awful, his hand-picked appointees on the SUNY board, as well as his political chancellor, were playing politics with our State University and putting our children at risk, but no one seemed to be holding George accountable. Many voters seemed to say, “The less government, the better.” They also were deeply suspicious of what they think of as tax-and-spend Democrats. In fact, there was no one to take George on and my friend Carl McCall did an awful job in the last election.
Even with all that said, if betting were legal and I had some spare cash I’d certainly take long odds and put money on the fact that Pataki might just run again – that is if Rudy Giuliani decides not to run and waits to run for President. That’s when the state’s Republicans, including all the FOG [Friends of George], who have grown fat and happy these past years will start to panic. Think of all those commissioners and deputy commissioners and contractors and fundraisers who will be out on their behinds. The money will stop. So the pressure will be immense on Pataki to run just one more time.
Hey, at this point he may not even think he’s going to run again. But now that the Bushies have made it very clear that George is not really being sought for a big job in Washington, what will he do? Go practice law and the art of political deal making with his friend D’Amato? I don’t think so. You know, it’s nice to have all those state troopers at your beck and call. It’s nice when your wife rakes in tons of money for doing what some people think is very, very little.
So despite the fact that Humbert is probably right, I would put a few dollars on George in the fourth race. Put yourself in his place. Just think what all those helicopters and planes and people kissing your feet have come to mean. No, I’ll bet that at the 11th hour, when all the columnists are writing that Pataki’s out because his time is up and Spitzer is going to beat the stuffing out of him, the governor could well sign on for yet another go. After all, who wants people to think that you’ve been run out of town and have no guts?
In the meantime, watch that political genius, Speaker Shelly Silver, make mincemeat out of George in this legislative session. Hey, if you’re a duck with a broken wing, you’d better find a good place to hide.




- posted by Alan @ 5/06/2004 03:06:00 AM