Syndicated Column 3-1-04
On Tuesday, New Yorkers will have their say
by Alan Chartock

Here comes Super Tuesday, otherwise known as March 2. Finally, after New Hampshire and Iowa and Wisconsin, it's time for New Yorkers to have their say.
Now it all comes down to John Edwards and John Kerry. Howard Dean is out of it, having contributed mightily to the Democratic Party debate while energizing a group of hopeless "me-too Democrats." Finally the candidates have some guts. Kerry has found his critical voice and as a result, it looks like he will take all the marbles and roll to victory. His combination of pro-war soldiering and anti-Vietnam rhetoric has the Bush camp scrambling for cover. Add to that his new anti-Bush demeanor and you have a powerful candidate who can get the Democrats to come out and vote.
On top of that, the allegations of Bush missing in action during his Air National Guard service haven't helped the president at all. Even worse for Bush, his own conservative base is falling by the wayside as his spending policies have nearly bankrupted the treasury. There's real trouble in River City even with the entry of Ralph "The Spoiler" Nader into the race.
New York State's Democratic power brokers now realize that Kerry is going to win the primary and maybe even the presidency. Edwards will do better than expected, appealing to more conservative upstate voters. But Kerry has the moxie and ambition to win and will undoubtedly do what it takes to become the candidate - that includes taking Southerner Edwards as his Prince-of-the-South vice presidential candidate. The early polls are showing that New York is no different than the rest of the country. The Democrats are hungry and they want to defeat George Bush. Speaker Sheldon Silver, once a supporter of the hapless Joe Lieberman, and the progressive left of the party that went wild for Howard Dean, are all coalescing, smelling Republican blood.
The news, of course, is good for U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer. In addition to the mighty war chest he has accumulated to run with, it appears that he will be running down-ticket from a strong Democratic presidential candidate. The presidential election will bring out more Democratic voters than would ordinarily bother to show up and that will give Schumer a record victory.
It is heard to remember that just a few short months ago it appeared that Bush might actually take New York State. Now it will be a wipe out in the general election and the Bush people know it. In a way that's too bad. If you think you have a shot at taking a state like New York, you throw everything but the kitchen sink into winning and that means delivering goodies by the truckload to the good people of the Empire State. But if you know you have no chance, you put your assets where they will do you some good.
While it appears that the House of Representatives is out of reach for the donkeys, the Senate is another story. If the Democrats find the right candidates and the right voice, they may actually take the upper chamber back. The Bush people are just waking up to the fact that a man who couldn't be beaten just a few months ago is now up against the ropes and breathing hard. You can gauge the level of Republican desperation by watching the U.S. Army pressing hard into the Afghanistan/Pakistan border to find Osama Bin Laden. We have all known that Bin Laden is the equivalent of a Hail Mary pass for the elephants.
So, Kerry will be the nominee. Edwards will make a respectable showing and prove his mettle as the articulate trial lawyer that he is and the Democrats will be off and running. This is a good piece of luck for a party that has proven time and again that it can't make its own luck. In fact, the party is so starving and the crowd around the political trough so dense that if Kerry wins, there may be a real food fight. I shudder at the thought. Someone will have to remind the Democrats of the table manners that their mothers should have taught them.






- posted by Alan @ 3/04/2004 03:43:00 PM